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Wednesday, March 19, 2014

MH370: 11 days, 7 theories

Acting Transport Minister Datuk Seri Hishammuddin Hussein (second from right) doubts that MH370 has been hijacked by a group calling itself the Chinese Martyrs’ Brigade. – The Malaysian Insider pic, March 19, 2014. 
Acting Transport Minister Datuk Seri Hishammuddin Hussein (second from right) doubts that MH370 has been hijacked by a group calling itself the Chinese Martyrs’ Brigade. – The Malaysian Insider pic, March 19, 2014.With time fast running out for investigators trying to locate the black box of Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 before its battery runs out in 18 days, the debate among experts and those following the investigation revolves around seven main theories that have emerged in the past 11 days.
The seven theories, as listed by Australian newspaper, The Age, range from the pilot making a desperate turn towards Pulau Langkawi following an emergency on board to a possible hijacking.
Here, The Age lists the theories that have grabbed attention so far:
1. SOURCE: Chris Goodfellow, who calls himself an experienced pilot
THE THEORY: Goodfellow has posted on Google Plus that he believes the pilot on MH370 may have been heading to the Malaysian resort island of Langkawi to land after the transponders were knocked out by a fire on board.
"The left turn is the key here. This was a very experienced senior captain with 18,000 flying hours," he had written.
"Maybe some of the younger pilots interviewed on CNN didn’t pick up on this left turn. We old pilots were always drilled to always know the closest airport of safe harbour while in cruise.
"Instinctively when I saw that left turn with a direct heading I knew he was heading for an airport. Actually he was taking a direct route to Pulau Langkawi, a 13,000-foot strip with an approach over water at night with no obstacles. He did not turn back to Kuala Lumpur because he knew he had 8,000-foot ridges to cross. He knew the terrain was friendlier towards Langkawi and also a shorter distance.
"Take a look on Google Earth at this airport. This pilot did all the right things. He was confronted by some major events on board that made him make that immediate turn back to the closest safe airport.
"What I think happened is that they were overcome by smoke and the plane just continued on the heading probably on George (autopilot) until either fuel exhaustion or fire destroyed the control surfaces and it crashed. I said four days ago you will find it along that route – looking elsewhere was pointless."
2. SOURCE: Desmond Ross, an Australian commercial pilot and aviation security expert
THE THEORY: Ross offers a similar theory to Goodfellow’s. He says the aircraft may have depressurised for some reason, possibly because of an explosion causing a hole in the fuselage. "The pilots quickly recognise the need to descend,” said Ross, who conducted a security review of Kuala Lumpur’s international airport in 2005.
“One of them starts to re-programme the flight management system and sets a low attitude and starts to reset the heading to turn back to Kuala Lumpur... however, he passes out before completing the entries into the computer for the new heading.
“The aircraft climbs out of control due to the explosion on board and then stalls at somewhere between the cruising height and 13,700m.
“It falls out of control to the height the pilot had set into the flight management system but does not complete the turn back to Kuala Lumpur because the pilot had only partly entered the numbers... it flies off on an unknown path.”
3. SOURCE: Keith Ledgerwood, who describes himself as a hobby pilot and aviation enthusiast from the United States

 THE THEORY: This theory is based on the premise that someone hijacked the plane.
Ledgerwood said the MH370 could have switched off its radar, then "shadowed" another plane – Singapore Airlines flight number 68 en route from Singapore to Barcelona – before landing north of India or Afghanistan.
"It is my belief that MH370 likely flew in the shadow of SIA68 through Indian and Afghanistani airspace," said Ledgerwood on Tumblr.
"As MH370 was flying 'dark' without transponder/ADS-B output, SIA68 would have had no knowledge that MH370 was anywhere around and as it entered Indian airspace, it would have shown up as one single blip on the radar with only the transponder information of SIA68 lighting up ATC and military radar screens."

4. SOURCE: Described in The Independent newspaper
THE THEORY: The plane may have been hijacked and flown to a Taliban base.
The Independent has reported that full diplomatic permissions were being sought in order to rule out the theory that the plane could have flown under the radar to areas of Afghanistan and Pakistan that are not under government control.
Large areas of the southern half of Afghanistan are ruled by the Afghan Taliban, while some areas of northwest Pakistan, adjacent to or near to the Afghan border, are controlled by the Taliban.
Pakistan's civil aviation officials have said that they had checked their radar recordings and found no sign of the missing jet.
A Taliban commander had said the fragmented group could only dream about such an operation.
"We wish we had an opportunity to hijack such a plane," he had told Reuters by telephone.

5. SOURCE: Investigators
THE THEORY: Authorities are investigating whether pilot or passenger suicide could explain the plane’s disappearance.
There is a historical precedent for this.
In 1997, SilkAir flight 185 crashed in Sumatra, killing all 97 people on board when the pilot flew the aircraft into a river.
Pilot suicide was also suspected in the crash of an EgyptAir flight in 1999, although that is disputed.
Such an option may explain the lack of debris if flight MH370 went down into the sea. The plane would not have disintegrated before impact and would have sunk quickly.

6. SOURCE: An email to journalists claiming to be from the Chinese Martyrs’ Brigade

THE THEORY: A shadowy group called the Chinese Martyrs’ Brigade claimed responsibility for the disappearance of MH370 in an email to journalists in China.
The encrypted email read: “You kill one of our clan, we will kill 100 of you as pay back.”
But the message provided no details of what brought the flight down.
Malaysia’s acting Transport Minister Datuk Seri Hishammuddin Hussein has since said he doubted the claim’s legitimacy.
"There is no sound or credible grounds to justify their claims,” he had said.

7. SOURCE: Malaysian police are said to be investigating this theory
THE THEORY: An explosive may have been hidden in the plane’s huge cargo of exotic fruit.
Malaysian officials have said that the only cargo on MH370 was a load of mangosteens, a fruit popular in Southeast Asia.
Malaysia Airlines CEO Ahmad Jauhari Yahya said that "three to four tonnes" of mangosteens were on the aircraft.
He said the cargo had been screened as a matter of routine before being loaded on to the plane, but authorities were said to be investigating whether an explosive could have been concealed in the fruit.
"This is yet another theory," an unnamed police officer told the Daily Mail. "But we are not discounting anything." – March 19, 2014.




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